Wounded Scottish nationalists fight to save independence dream

EDINBURGH — It was a decade ago this month that Scotland came within a whisker of leaving the U.K.
But only one thing was on Scottish nationalists’ minds as they gathered this weekend for the first time since their recent election humiliation: simply keeping the independence dream alive at all.
In a speech to the grassroots faithful on Sunday afternoon, Scottish National Party (SNP) Leader John Swinney promised independence still remains within reach, despite the party’s disastrous showing in the U.K. general election on July 4.
And he promised to win over Scots who have fallen out of love with his party — and with the independence cause itself.
“My promise to you is that I will make sure independence is understood as the route to a stronger and fairer country,” Swinney said.
“That is how we will make independence happen,” he added.
The annual SNP conference — held in Edinburgh — was seen by the party’s hierarchy as its chance to move on from July’s election result, where the SNP lost the vast majority of its Westminster seats.
Most importantly however, it was also a chance for Swinney to fire the starting pistol on 2026’s Scottish Parliament election — a vote now seen as crucial for the future of the party’s long-held independence dream. 
“[2026] is absolutely critical,” Pete Wishart, one of the SNP’s longest serving MPs and its deputy leader in Westminster, told POLITICO. 
“We always say that every election is the most important — but this one is the most important one,” he added. “We’ve got a huge task.” 
By the time 2026 rolls around the SNP will have been at the helm of the devolved Scottish government for almost two decades. 
But for the first time since taking control of Holyrood in 2007, the SNP faces a genuine fight to stay in power.
A resurgent Scottish Labour Party — led by Anas Sarwar, a fresh-faced opposition leader still basking in his party’s general election triumph — is snapping at its heels. Current polling suggests Scottish Labour is on track to force the SNP from office. 
With the tide of public opinion turned against them, there is an acceptance within SNP circles that Scottish independence is not currently within reach.
“The energy and excitement about the whole case for independence has started to subside a little bit. People don’t see a clear way forward,” Wishart said.
One party official, speaking off the record like others quoted in this article to speak frankly about the party’s predicament, admitted they didn’t think independence would now happen within their lifetime.
But falling from power in 2026 would set the cause even further back — and deal a major blow to the SNP’s core strategy for gaining independence: to govern well and gradually win Scots over. 
Indeed, if the party is to cling to power in two years time, it may have to do so by talking less, rather than more, about independence.
The SNP conference began Friday with a private, internal session for members discussing and analyzing what went wrong during the election campaign.
According to one person present at the meeting, one of the “most useful” bits was a presentation on the Scottish public’s current priorities, presented by Marco Biagi, an SNP councillor and strategist.
Biagi’s polling showed that while around 50 percent of Scottish voters were vaguely supportive of independence, it had slipped well down their list of priorities — with the bread-and-butter issues prioritized ahead of constitutional matters. 
“It’s about meeting people where they are,” one former SNP MP who lost their seat in July said.
“Some members need to be told hard truths — there are no short-cuts to independence. We have to stay in government and then win people around to a positive vision for independence, as opposed to Starmer’s Labour government,” they added. 
The Times newspaper, which obtained a leaked recording of the closed-doors meeting, reported that Swinney told members the SNP has been too “consumed by process on independence.”
“My leadership is about earning the right to be heard — by delivering on the public’s priorities,” Swinney said in his speech. He promised that his government will govern “harder and smarter”.
Promising to govern better is easier said than done, however.
July’s election humiliation was a long time coming for the SNP, which has endured a torrid time since Swinney’s predecessor Nicola Sturgeon suddenly resigned.
Since then the SNP has faced arrests and one criminal charge in connection with a long-running police investigation. The race to succeed Sturgeon descended into a chaotic and bad-tempered leadership contest, amidst declining public faith in the government’s policy record. Former leader Humza Yousaf’s self-destruction in the job was hardly helpful.
Most recently, the party’s preparations for this weekend’s conference were derailed by an unforced error around the handling of a meeting between Angus Robertson, the SNP’s external affairs minister, and the Israeli deputy ambassador, which deeply angered the SNP’s pro-Palestinian base. 
POLITICO witnessed Robertson face a lengthy — and frank — grilling on the subject from four SNP members who approached him as a group outside a conference reception Saturday evening. 
The impromptu meeting was polite and ended amicably — but it demonstrated the strength of feeling in the party around the issue. 
Swinney promised that going forward his party would be focused “not on ourselves, but on making life better for all the people of Scotland.”
But otherwise, much of his speech — and the other keynote speeches at the weekend from deputy leader Keith Brown and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn — centered around attacking the Labour government in Westminster, with all eyes focused on 2026.
Not all party figures are convinced by the approach.
“I’d like to see less focus on bashing Labour and a lot more chat about our own ideas,” one SNP lawmaker said. “What are we offering to the electorate for 2026?” they asked rhetorically.
The SNP is yet to figure that out.